Handicapping the Dog-Track

(you've just shanked another ball into the pond)


Tough break, kid.

Well, here we are, isn't that right? Breaking down the old American League central. I have to be honest here, I didn't think the White Sox had what it takes... especially in the not-running-it-down-the-leg department. But here we sit, and it's going down to the wire. I've been in a few of these in my day, and I've got to tell you that this Twins team is going to be ahead at the end of the season, that much I am sure of. The question is how they are going to get there. Let's get into it and break down how they should close this out, using dog-racing analogies, like only I know how.

DOG BETTING TIP #1 - Never take the dog on the rail if it's a slippery track

Sure kids, the White Sox look like they are pulling it all together for one big finish. They go out and get that son-of-a-bitch Ramirez and all of a sudden they are more powerful than the hometown boys. Well, let me tell you something here, they're on the rail and they're going to have to race like hell just to get into the lead. Know what happens when dogs on the rail push too hard?


You see the dog that just pushes forward after all that mayhem? That's the Twins.

DOG BETTING TIP #2 - Unlike horses, you want to bet on the dog that actually looks the skinniest and most malnourished

Why? Because he's chasing after food. You know when they pull the dogs into the little blue room to be shown in front of the closed-circuit prison camera? You want to bet on the one where you can see detailed outline of the ribs. A hungry dog will always close better. They can smell the meat at that distance. Me and Gil (that's a dog trainin' buddy of mine) used to go out and sprinkle a little gristle on the rabbit just to incite those dogs to finish hard. And boy, the hungry one would always sprint right at the end, just knowing they could get that sweet meat. The Twins are hungry this year, they know they were bred just for this type of stretch run, and Ron and the guys have kept them underfed all year. Now it's time to bust out and git that rabbit.

DOG BETTING TIP #3 - Bet on the dog that's been there before

The thing is, dogs with experience run more consistently. They know what it takes around each turn, and just how close they can get to the rabbit before they yank it away. An inexperienced dog will just bust after that thing full-bore for the first lap, and then his tongue is waggin' and he's heading in for some kibble. But the experienced dog knows that there is a t-bone waiting at the end if he just paces himself and takes each turn careful. The Twins are that dog: steady, deliberate, methodical. These are the dogs that you want to get to know their trainers. Because nothing beats going 4 for 4 on a Sunday at St. Croix.

--------------------------------------------------------

Now let's just have a look at the schedule difference between the Twins and White Sox. I'll give you which teams they'll be playing for the rest of the year, and separating these teams into a few categories. Blogger, don't fail me now...

Twins

• UTTERLY GARBAGE TEAMS: Kansas City, Cleveland (total of 12 games)
• MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEAMS THAT HAVE PROBLEMS WITH LIFE: Detroit, Oakland, Toronto, White Sox (total of 16 games)
• ACTUAL GOOD TEAMS THAT HAVE A FUTURE INVOLVING THE PLAYOFFS: Texas (total of 3 games)

White Sox

• UTTERLY GARBAGE TEAMS: Kansas City, Cleveland (total of 8 games)
  
• MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEAMS THAT HAVE PROBLEMS WITH LIFE: Detroit, LA Angels, Boston, Oakland (total of 20 games)
  
• ACTUAL GOOD TEAMS THAT HAVE A FUTURE INVOLVING THE PLAYOFFS: Minnesota (total of 3 games)

Now here's some findings for you. First, the Whiteys can't beat garbage teams. Let's not forget that the only reason they are here right now is because they beat up on the NL garbage teams. But the AL? They are having problems. They are a combined 13-15 against the Royals and Indians, two teams they see for 8 more games. If history holds there, they will go 4-4. The Twins are doing, oh, how do you say, the funking when it comes to the garbage teams. They are 16-8 against the Royals and Indians, which would come out to at least 8-4 against those guys the rest of the way. I think I see a potential for gaining games here.

If you wash the rest of the "middle" teams (and just assume that each team will play about .500), then it comes down to REALLY needing to beat the "good" teams. If the Twins can even get a game from Texas, then the White Sox will absolutely need to sweep the Twins to even keep it close. You see, by my classification system up there, the Twins are the only really good team they play. Every other team, besides KC and Cleve, will be roughly the same for each team. For example, if the Sox beat Boston loud, and take 6 games from them, then the Twins will be just as likely to do that against Detroit. There is no probability difference between those teams. And since they can't make hay against the garbage (and the Twins most decidedly CAN), then they really need to beat MN in all 3 games.

Kids, I'll leave you with one thought:

What do you think the fucking odds are of the White Sox sweeping the Twins when the games matter?